882 mb: The Hurricane That Broke Every Record | Hurricane Wilma True Story

Chapter 1The Number That Shouldn't Exist

It is 19 October 2005, 08:01 UTC. A hurricane hunter aircraft is flying through the eye of a storm, taking measurements. A dropsonde is released and records a pressure of 884 mb in the eye. The true central pressure was estimated at 882 mb, the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic. It broke the 888 mb record set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, and it ranks as the tenth-lowest pressure officially measured anywhere in the world.

Winds were blowing at 185 mph, which is Category 5 strength. The eye had shrunk to just 2.3 miles (3.7 kilometers) across, which was also a record. The storm was Wilma, the twenty-second storm of the record-breaking 2005 season and its fourth Category 5 hurricane.

Its intensity raises three questions. How did the storm explode in strength so quickly? Why can forecasters still not predict such explosions? And, most importantly, what happened to ordinary people in its path, and what lessons were learned? This journey runs from a slow start in the Caribbean to Cancun, Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas, and then looks at what science has learned since.

Chapter 2A Lazy Monsoon in the Caribbean

The story begins in mid-October 2005, when a large, monsoon-like system was forming in the Caribbean Sea. On 13 October a broad area of low pressure formed southeast of Jamaica, and its shape slowly became clearer as deep convection gathered. At 18:00 UTC on 15 October, the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Twenty-Four, about 220 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

Conditions were favorable: the water was warm and the steering flow was weak, so the system drifted slowly west-southwest. High pressure sat over the Gulf of Mexico and an anticyclone lay to the storm's east-northeast, which kept the steering weak and uncertain. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were issued for the Cayman Islands at 09:00 UTC on 16 October and dropped three days later. On 17 October the depression turned southwest and became a tropical storm, and the NHC named it Wilma. A tropical storm warning was also issued for the coast of Honduras, from the Nicaraguan border to Cabo Camaron.

At first Wilma moved sluggishly. It was very large, with a flat pressure gradient, and its convection organized only slowly. Meanwhile its rains reached Haiti, where rivers rose, landslides struck and 12 people died, with about 300 people going to shelters. Jamaica saw three days of rain. Low-lying settlements flooded, mudslides closed roads and one person died. About 250 people were in emergency shelters, and damage on the island was estimated at 93.5 million dollars.

The 2005 Atlantic season was already unusual, and Wilma was about to add a new chapter. It was the season's 21st named storm, breaking the 1933 record of 20 storms in a season. An unnamed subtropical storm was later added to the year's list, which made Wilma the season's 22nd storm. For the first time, the full list of 21 names was exhausted with Wilma, and later storms had to use letters of the Greek alphabet. That did not happen again until 2020, when 22 storms formed and the Greek alphabet was used once more.

So how did a slow, large storm turn into a record-breaking monster within days?

Chapter 3What Is Rapid Intensification?

Rapid intensification, in simple terms, is when a tropical cyclone becomes much stronger in a very short time. But how short, and how much stronger? There is no single worldwide definition, and different regions and agencies use different thresholds. The commonly used definition was given in 2003 by John Kaplan of the Hurricane Research Division and Mark DeMaria of Colorado State University. By it, an increase of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in one-minute maximum sustained winds within 24 hours counts as rapid intensification. That increase matched roughly the 95th percentile of intensity changes of Atlantic storms over water between 1989 and 2000, and the NHC uses the same definition.

There is also a separate term for pressure, rapid deepening, meaning a drop of at least 42 mb in minimum pressure within 24 hours. Wilma's 24-hour pressure drop was 97 mb, more than double that threshold.

This is not rare. Roughly 20 to 30 percent of tropical cyclones go through rapid intensification at least once in their lives, and most storms with winds above 110 mph do. In other words, the storms that become truly dangerous often get there with a burst. That is why storm intensity worldwide follows an interesting pattern: weak and very strong storms are more common, while those of middling strength are relatively rare. Rapid intensification episodes also often last longer than 24 hours, so 24 hours is just a yardstick, not the whole story.

What causes the burst? Scientists still do not fully know. Some ingredients are fairly clear: warm sea surface temperatures and moist, unstable air are repeatedly linked to it. Then there are hot towers and convective bursts, surges of strong convection in the storm's core, though it is unclear whether they are a cause or a result. Wind shear plays an odd role too, sometimes helping rapid intensification and sometimes stopping it. Smaller tropical cyclones also tend to change quickly more often, perhaps because they are more sensitive to their environment.

The records are striking. In 2015, Hurricane Patricia's winds rose 120 mph in 24 hours, a worldwide record. In 2019, according to the JTWC, Cyclone Ambali's winds rose 110 mph in 24 hours, the largest increase in the Southern Hemisphere since at least 1980. Wilma, with its 97 mb drop, set a new Atlantic record. Now let us see how those hours unfolded.

Chapter 4Twenty-Four Hours of Explosion

On 18 October Wilma became a hurricane, and right after that came what is called explosive deepening. The storm's pressure began to fall quickly over the open waters of the Caribbean Sea. In the 30 hours up to 19 October, Wilma's barometric pressure fell from 982 to 882 millibars, a drop of about 100 millibars. That made Wilma the most intense Atlantic hurricane by pressure.

Over 24 hours, the pressure fell by 97 mb, the fastest drop ever in the Atlantic basin. The previous record belonged to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, whose low was 888 mb against Wilma's 882 mb. Compared with the rest of the world, Hurricane Patricia in 2015 also saw a 97 mb drop according to RSMC data. Typhoon Forrest in 1983 is also mentioned: by some estimates its pressure fell 104 mb, and the WMO regards it as the fastest. So records of this speed are held by different storms around the world, but in the Atlantic the record is Wilma's. The NHC definition of rapid deepening requires only a 42 mb drop in 24 hours, while Wilma's was 97 mb.

The winds rose too. The storm reached peak winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and became a Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale. In just 24 hours Wilma went from a hurricane to a Category 5, the fourth of the 2005 season. Such rapid change is hard for forecasters to grasp. Rapid intensification is a major cause of forecast errors, and the timing is hard to predict.

Now to the moment where our story began: 19 October, 08:01 UTC. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropped a dropsonde into the eye, and it measured 884 mb. Sustained winds there were only 23 mph, which suggested the central pressure was a little lower, and it was estimated at 882 mb. Officially, that is the tenth-lowest pressure in the world, and the second-lowest in the Western Hemisphere after Patricia. The Hurricane Hunters also estimated that the eye had shrunk to just 2.3 miles (3.7 km), another new record. Imagine 185 mph winds around an eye only 3.7 km wide. It was the smallest eye on record.

But the peak did not last. On 20 October an eyewall replacement cycle began, and Wilma weakened below Category 5, with winds falling to 150 mph (240 km/h). The danger had not passed, though. The storm was moving slowly northwest. Because of mid-level ridging strengthening to the northeast, Wilma turned toward Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. What happened there?

Chapter 5Cancun Under the Eye

The story now reaches Mexico. The government issued hurricane warnings from Chetumal to San Felipe and extended a tropical storm warning to Celestún. Quintana Roo and Yucatán were put on red alert, the highest level in the country's color-coded system, and 23 municipalities were placed under a state of emergency. About 75,000 people left the area. Of these, 45,000 rode out the storm in 200 emergency shelters, and many were tourists. Some shelters were schools and clinics. The MTV Latin America awards planned for 20 October in Playa del Carmen were canceled, and schools in Quintana Roo, Yucatán and Campeche stayed closed in places for up to 15 days.

As late as 09:00 UTC on 21 October, the NHC expected Wilma to hit the coast as a Category 5 hurricane, but the storm had weakened. At 21:45 UTC on 21 October, Wilma made landfall on Cozumel with 150 mph winds, Category 4. About six hours later, at 03:30 UTC on 22 October, it made a second landfall on the mainland near Puerto Morelos, with winds down to 135 mph. The storm then crawled onward, and parts of the Yucatán Peninsula had tropical storm-force winds for about 50 hours. In Cancún, 10-minute sustained winds of about 100 mph were measured, with gusts to 132 mph, before the anemometer failed. Gusts are estimated to have reached 140 mph.

Isla Mujeres set a rainfall record. In the 24 hours from 12:30 UTC on 21 October, a rain gauge measured 1,633.98 mm, the most in 24 hours in Mexico and the whole Western Hemisphere. One report said it was more than Quintana Roo's annual rainfall. The sea rose too: the NHC estimated storm surge at up to 4.6 m (15 ft). Beaches were badly eroded. In Cancún, waves of 5 to 8 m pushed water up to the third floor of some buildings, and the sand of Playa Ballenas was washed away completely. On Kukulkán Boulevard, 110 hotels were destroyed or badly affected, though most damage was material and the structures of buildings generally suffered less. About 300,000 people in the city were left homeless, and one shelter flooded, forcing around 300 people to move.

Across Mexico, Wilma caused 8 deaths, 7 in Quintana Roo and 1 in Yucatán. We share in the grief of every affected family. A total of 28,980 houses were affected, 9,463 destroyed and 19,517 damaged, along with 473 schools.

On cost, the sources differ. One says total damage in Mexico was 4.6 billion dollars, equal to 50 billion pesos. Another says direct damage was 442 million dollars, with a further 1.3 billion dollars of economic loss including lost tourism income. But Wilma's journey was not over. On 23 October it left the Yucatán Peninsula and entered the Gulf of Mexico. What was coming next?

Chapter 6Cuba, Then the Race to Florida

Now it was Cuba's turn. By 22 October a hurricane warning covered Havana city and the provinces of La Habana and Pinar del Río. The government mobilized 93,154 workers. From the western provinces, 760,168 people were moved to safe places, mostly with relatives, friends or in shelters. Schools were closed across the country, 41 hotels shut, 554 boats were moved to safety, and farmers removed 246,631 livestock. Trains and the ferry from Batabanó to Isla de la Juventud stopped, and three airports, Havana, Varadero and Cayo Coco, closed briefly.

As Wilma moved northeast in the Gulf, western Cuba saw high tides and strong winds. The strongest gust, 84 mph, was at Casablanca, and Pinar del Río received the most rain, 8.8 inches. Parts of Havana flooded, and about 250 people were rescued with rafts. Across the country, 446 houses were destroyed and 7,149 affected, mostly with roof damage, and 364 schools and 3 hospitals were also affected. Cuba's government put the total economic loss at 704.2 million dollars, including preparation costs and lost factory output.

On 25 October the United States offered emergency aid to Cuba, and the Cuban government accepted it the next day. That differed from the past, as such an offer had not been accepted during Hurricane Dennis. This time the United States gave 100,000 dollars to non-governmental organizations.

Now back to the storm. Wilma had entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane after crossing the Yucatán. Surprisingly, despite a marked increase in wind shear, it slowly began regaining strength, a reminder of wind shear's unpredictable role. In the early hours of 24 October, Wilma became a Category 3 again. A strong trough was pulling it quickly northeast.

All eyes were now on Florida. Governor Jeb Bush had declared a state of emergency on 19 October so the National Guard could be deployed. The NHC issued a hurricane warning for South Florida from Longboat Key to Titusville, including Lake Okeechobee and the Florida Keys. Monroe County ordered mandatory evacuation for Keys residents, and in Collier County people west or south of U.S. Route 41 also had to leave. County offices, schools and courts were closed on 24 October, and schools in Broward and Palm Beach stayed closed for two weeks because of long power outages.

Sports and festivals were affected too. Key West's Fantasy Fest was postponed to December, and attendance was only about a third of normal. The NFL moved the Chiefs–Dolphins game from 23 October to 21 October. The NHL's Panthers–Senators game on 22 October was postponed until 5 December. Three college football games were changed as well: Georgia Tech vs. Miami was moved to 19 November, and West Virginia vs. South Florida to 3 December.

Wilma was about to pass northwest of the Florida Keys, and time was running short with every hour. But where would it make landfall, and how strongly?

Chapter 7Landfall at Cape Romano

At about 10:30 UTC on 24 October, Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida near Cape Romano with 120 mph winds. It crossed the state very quickly and weakened to Category 2, then re-emerged into the Atlantic Ocean near Jupiter.

First, the Florida Keys. Storm surge came in two surges there, and the second brought the worst coastal flooding since Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Surge heights were generally 4 to 8 feet, reaching about 9 feet in Marathon. About 60 percent of Key West was underwater. Around 690 apartments, houses and mobile homes were uninhabitable. Up to 20,000 vehicles were affected, which is why the Key West Citizen called it a car graveyard.

In Collier County, about 200 recreational vehicles were destroyed at Chokoloskee, and Everglades City was covered by about 4 feet of water. In Naples, 90 high-rise condos were affected. In Collier County 16,000 homes and businesses suffered some damage, and total losses were 1.2 billion dollars. Wilma's large eye then passed over the Miami area. Losses were 2.9 billion dollars in Palm Beach County, 2 billion in Miami-Dade and 1.2 billion in Broward. In Broward County 5,111 homes, and in Miami-Dade at least 2,059, were uninhabitable.

Then came the power crisis. According to Florida Power & Light, more than 3,241,000 customers lost power, the largest outage in Florida's history at the time. Agriculture lost about 1.3 billion dollars, including about 554 million for nurseries and 400 million for sugarcane. In Hendry County, about 90 percent of buildings and homes in Clewiston and the eastern parts were affected, and about half of the orange and sugar crop was lost. In Martin County a 108 mph gust was recorded at Hobe Sound. Brevard County got 10 to 13 inches of rain and 6 tornadoes. In the Florida Panhandle, unusually high tides washed the Cape St. George Lighthouse into the Gulf of Mexico.

Statewide losses were about 19 billion dollars. Florida reported 30 deaths, 5 of them from direct causes. At the time, it was the fourth-costliest hurricane in America.

Wilma then passed north of the Bahamas. On Grand Bahama, a 12-foot storm surge reached about 1,000 feet inland and about 250 homes were destroyed. A 15-month-old child died there. The Bahamas told the WMO that losses were about 6.5 million dollars, while one official estimated under 100 million. In Bermuda, Wilma's gusts reached only 51 mph because the storm was moving so fast. Meanwhile a nor'easter formed near Cape Hatteras, drew moisture and energy from Wilma, and cut power to about 200,000 homes and businesses in the northeastern U.S.

On 26 October, Wilma became an extratropical cyclone about 230 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The next day it was absorbed by another storm. The total was at least 52 deaths and 26.5 billion dollars in damage, most of it in the United States. So what did Wilma teach us?

Chapter 8What Wilma Taught Us

The storm had passed, but the real work was only beginning. In Mexico, people in shelters faced food shortages, so 10 community kitchens were set up in Cancún. The Cancún airport was closed to the public, so stranded visitors traveled by taxi and bus to Mérida, 320 km away. Most hotels in Cozumel, Isla Mujeres and the Riviera Maya reopened by early January 2006, and most Cancún resorts were running again a year later. The beaches also had to be restored. Teams installed geotubes and dredged about 2.5 million cubic meters of sand, but the new beaches were not as firm as natural ones.

The Florida legislature took several steps in its 2006 session. It set aside 66.7 million dollars to improve shelters, required high-rise buildings to have at least one generator-powered elevator, and required backup power for gas stations. FEMA gave 342.5 million dollars to 227,321 approved applicants, plus more than 1.4 billion dollars in public assistance. The Small Business Administration approved about 101.4 million dollars in low-interest loans. The Army Corps of Engineers installed over 42,000 temporary roofs. By the end of September 2010, about 9.2 billion dollars had been paid on more than 1 million Wilma-related insurance claims in Florida.

In the Bahamas, the Red Cross gave food and supplies for three months to 1,000 of 3,500 affected families. The other 2,500 families were helped by the government and other organizations. Because of the widespread destruction, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Wilma in April 2006, replacing it with Whitney for 2011.

Now to the science. Rapid intensification is a source of major forecast errors, and in 2012 the NHC named it its top priority. That need led to NASA's GRIP experiment and the CYGNSS and TROPICS satellite constellations, all meant to better understand fast changes in storms. Forecasters now use tools like the Rapid Intensification Index and the JTWC's RIPA. Statistical models have performed better than dynamical ones. A 2023 NCAR study described two paths: marathon mode, which runs long at a moderate pace, and sprint mode, which is fast and short and is possible even in strong wind shear.

There is also a worrying trend. According to the IPCC, the likelihood of rapid intensification has likely increased worldwide over the past four decades. Within 400 km of coasts, the number tripled between 1980 and 2020, and a possible cause given is the warming of coastal waters.

So can we tell the timing and strength of the next Wilma in advance? Not yet. Models have improved, but timing and magnitude remain difficult. Wilma's story was not only about records, but about people and preparation. If you liked the video, like it and subscribe to the channel.